Analyst Survey 2018

This year's survey paints a vivid picture of a world where companies are confidently investing for the future, paying their workers more and rewarding shareholders. The forecasts in this report are based not on macro-economic data but on what corporates are actually doing, and what bosses tell our team of equity and credit analysts in the 16,000 meetings they hold around the world every year.

As good as it gets: corporate sentiment rises to new highs

Company executives are the most optimistic they’ve been in five...

Company executives are the most optimistic they’ve been in five years, reports Fidelity’s 2018 Analyst Survey.

ESG enters the boardroom

For the first time, a majority of analysts find their companies...

For the first time, a majority of analysts find their companies are taking ESG more seriously, according to the Fidelity Analyst Survey.

Inflationary pressures edging up

Analyst Survey sees upward pressure on costs and wages ...

Analyst Survey sees upward pressure on costs and wages – but not on prices.

Sector insights

Sector by sector: Fidelity Analyst Survey 2018.

Sector by sector: Fidelity Analyst Survey 2018.

Region – US, EMEA & Latam

How do our analysts report CEOs in different regions are feeling ...

How do our analysts report CEOs in different regions are feeling this time around? Read about views from analysts covering companies in the US, EMEA & Latam.

Region – China, Japan & other Asia-Pacific

Analysts see signs this year that China’s economy has turned ...

Analysts see signs this year that China’s economy has turned a corner; unemployment in Japan is at the lowest levels since the mid-1990s and notable sequential improvement within the region.

 

Outlook 2018: 

Heading into extra time

Global CIO overviews

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Global Market Outlook 2018: Overviews

Equity

Returns brought forward

2017 was a vintage year for global equity markets, with indices delivering strong double-digit returns in dollar terms. Markets have heavily discounted future earnings growth...Learn more

2017 was a vintage year for global equity markets, with indices delivering strong double-digit returns in dollar terms. Markets have heavily discounted future earnings growth and some stocks have been pushed up to lofty valuations. As a result, markets have essentially ‘brought forward’ or front-loaded much of 2018’s returns into 2017. By extension, 2018 looks like being a much tougher environment for equity investors to navigate.

China equities: New China

‘New China’ sectors, those spanning consumption and service-oriented industries, are likely to benefit the most from consumption upgrades and innovations...Learn more

‘New China’ sectors, those spanning consumption and service-oriented industries, are likely to benefit the most from consumption upgrades and innovations, and are expected to witness the highest growth in the next three to five years. Those companies with strong technological knowledge and innovative products are particularly likely to do well.

Asia equities: Bottom-up, stock specific opportunities abound

Easy money has been made in the recent market rally. Going forward, performance will be driven by fundamentals...Learn more

Easy money has been made in the recent market rally. Going forward, performance will be driven by fundamentals. Such an environment will favour bottom-up stock pickers who can identify long term winners.

Emerging market equities: More to come?

Following years of lacklustre performance, emerging market equities commenced their ascent in 2016. But with 2018 upon us...Learn more

Following years of lacklustre performance, emerging market equities commenced their ascent in 2016. With 2018 upon us, the extent to which the rally can be sustained is front of mind for many investors.

Equity income: Does the dividend matter anymore?

The importance of the dividend has taken a back seat. The dominant theme in the market is technological disruption...Learn more

The importance of the dividend has taken a back seat. The dominant theme in the market is technological disruption - and for the disruptors, the payment of a dividend could not be farther from their thoughts.

Global equities: Slower, but continued earnings growth

Global earnings drove the equity markets in 2017 and that could continue in 2018, albeit at a slower rate. Japan’s resurgence is not over...Learn more

Global earnings drove the equity markets in 2017 and that could continue in 2018, albeit at a slower rate. Japan’s resurgence is not over and has the potential to surprise investors. Geopolitical risk remains on the horizon and watch out for rising inflation.

Fixed Income

The bond investors who cried wolf

2017 will go down as another year for good returns across fixed income. The cries for a correction in bonds fell on deaf ears again…Learn more

2017 will go down as another year for good returns across fixed income. The cries for a correction in bonds fell on deaf ears again, and, as we turn the page on the year, yields across fixed income asset classes are mostly lower than where they started. There is no doubt that those cries will reverberate again in 2018.

Asia high yield: Clipping coupons, careful selection

Asian high yield bonds performed strongly in 2017. In 2018, I will continue to focus on bottom-up security selection, with a bias towards high quality issuers...Learn more

Asian high yield bonds performed strongly in 2017. In 2018, I will continue to focus on bottom-up security selection, with a bias towards high quality issuers and liquid holdings, and a focus on income. An issuer and sector constrained approach remains key to ensuring diversification and managing volatility.

Asia investment grade bonds: The great unwind

Asian investment grade bonds have a good longer-term outlook but could encounter challenges in 2018. Uncertainty around the unwinding of the US Fed balance sheet...Learn more

Asian investment grade bonds have a good longer-term outlook but could encounter challenges in 2018. Uncertainty around the unwinding of the US Fed balance sheet, and disappointing Chinese growth, could cause markets to reprice, but that volatility may introduce opportunities for savvy investors.

Emerging market debt: Treading carefully after a strong year

Emerging market debt remains one of the last available sources of attractive yield and diversification. But, as inflows continue and valuations rise...Learn more

Emerging market debt remains one of the last available sources of attractive yield and diversification. But, as inflows continue and valuations rise, the relative attractiveness of the asset class does warrant a more cautious stance.

Global bonds: Now is not the time to chase yields

The broad macro thesis marked by high debt and ageing populations remains in place and will continue to drive a low-yield environment...Learn more

The broad macro thesis marked by high debt and ageing populations remains in place and will continue to drive a low-yield environment. However, credit quality at the margin is weakening, so it’s crucial to do adequate due diligence.

Multi-Asset

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Perspective: US still matters most for 2018

In 2017, markets proved to be calmer than many investors expected. In 2018, US inflation could surprise the market by being higher than expected, and this could provide opportunities in US Treasuries and financial debt… Learn more

In 2017, markets proved to be calmer than many investors expected. In 2018, US inflation could surprise the market by being higher than expected, and this could provide opportunities in US Treasuries and financial debt. The year could also herald renewed European political risk given Brexit negotiations, Italian elections and Catalonia independence.

Why inflation could corner central banks

We have never been through a cycle where equities have been driven by central banks. 2018 is the year when that influence is reduced, either through scaling back asset purchases in the case of the ECB, or no longer reinvesting assets for the Federal Reserve. Learn more

We have never been through a cycle where equities have been driven by central banks. 2018 is the year when that influence is reduced, either through scaling back asset purchases in the case of the ECB, or no longer reinvesting assets for the Federal Reserve.